Gallup survey shows independent voters increasingly backing Democrats before US midterm elections

Independent voters are increasingly supporting the Democratic Party ahead of November’s US midterm elections, according to Gallup’s latest quarterly party affiliation data. Among independent voters surveyed, 49 percent said they leaned toward the Democratic Party, compared with 39 percent who leaned Republican. The Democratic advantage has grown by four percentage points since the first quarter of 2025, when President Donald Trump began his second term. Across all voters, 31 percent now identify as Democrats, up from 28 percent when Trump took office. The Democratic advantage marks the strongest position for the party since 2008. The shift presents challenges for Republicans seeking to attract centrist voters in competitive races. Trump’s approval rating has declined during his second term, and voters have pointed to Middle East tensions and inflation as reasons for withdrawing support. Although Trump campaigned on cost of living issues, inflation has remained above the Federal Reserve’s target since the Iran conflict began in February. Gallup’s survey was based on a random sample of more than 3,000 US adults with a margin of error of two percentage points.