OPEC+ is expected to leave its oil output policy unchanged at a meeting scheduled for Sunday, according to sources familiar with the discussions. The producer group, which includes the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied nations like Russia, needs to establish new quotas before making decisions about its next output moves.
The meeting occurs as the Iran war continues to disrupt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, which has reduced OPEC+ ability to influence global prices and market share. The group’s production decisions have had limited market impact recently, unlike in previous years.
OPEC+ completed a phased rollback of supply cuts in August by agreeing to boost September production. However, the group still produces well below its target levels due to the conflict. Before unwinding additional production cuts and returning more oil to the market, members must review their production capacity to establish output baselines for 2027 that will form the foundation for future quotas. This review is expected to occur later in 2026, which is likely why OPEC+ will pause output increases in the fourth quarter.